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Principal Investigator: Karen Kohri (JHU-APL)

Investigators:

• Daniel Hamilton (JHU-SAIS)
• Ester Brimmer (JHU-SAIS)
• Damian Watkins (MSU)
• Jigish Zaveri (MSU)
• Thomas Friedman (FAMU)

Project Objectives:

This project will establish a baseline for the decision-making process to include documenting the critical decision-making paths and the critical factors that influence decision-making using a mass evacuation scenario.

• Identify factors that influence decision-making.
• Assess how communications and situational awareness needs are influenced by co-location versus distributed location of the decision-makers.
• Assess the influence on the decision-making process of events necessitating cross-jurisdiction (local, State, federal, military) response and support

Project Summary & Planned Activities:

This project will examine the decision-making response to a catastrophic event necessitating a mass evacuation across local & state boarders. Such a scenario will allow the examination of not only the local decision making process but the corresponding decision making process needed to enable mass evacuations across jurisdictions. A baseline of factors that influence decision making for this type of scenario will be established through researching existing documentation and discussions with emergency management, transportation, and law enforcement personnel that have experience in evacuation planning or an actual evacuation-based event. Information gained from this research will be documented and utilized to develop materials for a Warfare Analysis Laboratory Exercise (WALEX). The participants in the WALEX will be presented with a disaster-based scenario through which they will be able to provide insights, comments, and suggestions on decision making methods that can be utilized to strengthen progressive evacuation planning and operations. The information gained from this WALEX will be utilized to lay the groundwork for developing a model Concept of Operation (CONOPS) that will support decision makers in planning and responding to wide-spread mass evacuations. Once the model CONOPS is developed it will be piloted to determine its validity within the relevant decision making community.

Year 1 activities will include preparation and development of necessary materials for WALEX demonstration. Actual WALEX and resulting analysis is slated for July 2007. Year 2 activities will build on the information gathered from the WALEX to develop model CONOPS. Year 3 will include a series of activities designed to further refine the CONOPS.

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