Principal Investigator: James J. Scheulen, PC-A
Research Question:
A critical component of emergency preparedness is our ability to predict the health surge influence (i.e., casualty estimates) of various hazard scenarios and the subsequent ability of a region to meet these medical demands (medical surge capacity). One tool, Electronic Mass Casualty Assessment and Planning Scenarios (EMCAPS) Version 1.0, is a scalable program intended to support emergency preparedness planning efforts at multiple levels. This computerized modeling simulation program, which allows users to manipulate key scenario-based input variables that best reflect the region or locale of interest, was developed to have broad application across emergency management and public health fields as part of a catastrophic events preparedness planning process. The program then provides output data which can be used to assess and tailor response capabilities for specific jurisdictions, organizations, and health care systems.
With this proposal we describe plans to update and expand the current tool and develop EMCAPS Version 2.0 (V2.0) to make the program more accessible, interactive, and instructive. This new version will provide users greater flexibility in tailoring a scenario to their particular location, with additional scenarios to choose from, as well as more variables for manipulation within each scenario. By expanding EMCAPS and its capabilities, public health, disaster preparedness and response, and medical operations planners will have more information and options when planning for their localized area. The updated EMCAPS software will generate the anticipated population-based health surge influence of the hazard scenario, with casualty estimates that are stratified by injury severity/types where appropriate.
The output data can then be used to assess and tailor response capabilities for specific jurisdictions, organizations, and health care systems, as well as complement current educational and training programs geared toward practitioners and responders all along the spectrum of critical event response and medical care. Output figures from this decision support tool can be translated into practical terms for planners as they draft an appropriate and directed response plan by suggesting resources, including personnel and particular supplies, planning entities need to effectively respond. Specifically, outputs can help identify the scope of the risks to public health systems posed by relevant threats and catastrophic health events. Furthermore, by generating a packaged set of scenario outputs, EMCAPS is specifically formatted to foster collaborative, capabilities-based discussions, exercises, and training as part of an overall preparedness planning process, and to align with education and training programs that promote cross-sector, regional and capability-based coordination.
Moreover, EMCAPS estimates can help inform and promote more effective medical systems at the local, state, and regional levels. Finally, the development of EMCAPS V2.0 will specifically support the following federal priorities: (1) Modeling & Simulation for Decision Support Systems and Informatics and Decision Support Tools (priority areas for both DHS IGD and Chem/Bio Divisions and a focus area during the Biennial Review); (2) Health/Medical Equipment and Supplies (a functional area specified in ESF-8); (3) Disaster Health Systems and Education and Training (priority areas specified in HSPD-21); and (4) Healthcare Surge Capacity (priority area for HHS).
Analytic Approach:
The project team will be comprised of researchers and scientists from the Johns Hopkins Office of Critical Event Preparedness and Response (JH CEPAR) and the JH Applied Physics Laboratory (APL). The proposed project period is from July 1, 2010 – June 30, 2011. The project shall take the following analytic approach and consist of the following tasks.
Specific Aims 1-6: Five additional hazard scenarios from the DHS National Planning Scenarios list will be added to the EMCAPS software. Each scenario shall be reviewed and a model developed that includes variables pertinent to the scenario. Variables to be considered for the different scenarios are listed in Table 1, although others may be added as needed. The mathematical model used in each scenario will be clearly defined in the software, users’ guide and technical documentation to facilitate sensitivity analyses (as listed in the Planned Deliverables section). In addition, sensitivity analyses will be completed for a minimum of one scenario and included in the technical documentation. Several modifications to the original software will be implemented during the development of the EMCAPS Version 2.0. The format of input variables for the new and original scenario models shall be reviewed and modified (if possible). Input variables shall be made continuous whenever possible to maximize the users’ ability to tailor the scenario. The software shall be modified so that users can choose to have output displayed in English or metric units. The user interface of EMCAPS shall be evaluated for changes to make it more interactive and accessible to users. Lastly, inclusion of a mapping capability shall be evaluated and a plan for implementation of this change will be completed if appropriate. EMCAPS Version 2.0 will be written in C#, as is the original version. It will be a stand-alone application, but crafted so that it can be easily integrated with other similar software.