Decision and Policy Support
- Development of EMCAPS Version 2.0
A critical component of emergency preparedness is our ability to predict the health surge influence (i.e., casualty estimates) of various hazard scenarios and the subsequent ability of a region to meet these medical demands (medical surge capacity). One tool, Electronic Mass Casualty Assessment and Planning Scenarios (EMCAPS) Version 1.0, is a scalable program intended to support emergency preparedness planning efforts at multiple levels. This computerized modeling simulation program, which allows users to manipulate key scenario-based input variables that best reflect the region or locale of interest, was developed to have broad application across emergency management and public health fields as part of a catastrophic events preparedness planning process. The program then provides output data which can be used to assess and tailor response capabilities for specific jurisdictions, organizations, and health care systems. With this proposal we describe plans to update and expand the current tool and develop EMCAPS Version 2.0 (V2.0) to make the program more accessible, interactive, and instructive. This new version will provide users greater flexibility in tailoring a scenario to their particular location, with additional scenarios to choose from, as well as more variables for manipulation within each scenario.
- Modeling and Simulation of Complex Social Dynamics for Catastrophic Event Preparedness and Response
We will continue factoring behavior (fear, distrust, biased risk appraisal, emotional contagion) into the modeling of disaster preparedness and containment planning for catastrophic events. In addition we will continue collaboration with Drs. Ron Brookmeyer, Nicholas Reich, and Derek Cummings on the development of real-time statistical tools for estimating disease parameters.