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Principal Investigator: James Coolahan (JHU-APL)

Investigators:

• Bharat Soni (UAB)
• Stephen Miller (FAU)
• Makola Abdullah (FAMU)
• Joshua Epstein (Brookings)

Project Objectives:

Although individual models and simulations can help predict specific behaviors (contamination plume transport and diffusion, transportation network performance, etc.), overall preparedness and response actions depend upon the integrated effects. The intent of this integrative project is to develop a unifying common simulation framework into which smaller, more focused, simulations can be integrated to address, in a synergistic fashion, various multi-disciplinary problems associated with catastrophic, high-consequence events. Two prototype simulation federations will be developed using the High Level Architecture (HLA) standard: one to examine transportation options in response to chemical contaminant releases in cities; and a second to examine the detection and progress of disease outbreaks as the result of biological attacks.

• Develop a unifying framework for integrating and applying the most promising M&S tools available.
• Integrate, into interoperable simulation “federations,” selected sets of the most robust computational tools and models of diffusion and dispersion of CBRNE agents, transportation networks, emerging infectious diseases, and behavioral epidemiology.
• Make available such tools to policymakers, public health professionals, and other end-users in order to aid decision-making.

Methods/Approach:

Acquisition, Development and Enhancement:

The initial step of this project will be to conduct an extensive systematic literature and M&S tool search, to ensure the capture of state-of-the-practice high-fidelity M&S tools applicable to high-consequence events. Within four months after the start, we will produce an initial electronic catalog of M&S tools in airborne transport of chemical, biological, and radiological (CBR) agents; transportation modeling; structural modeling; and epidemiological modeling.

Unifying Framework:

The intent is to create an initial framework based on the HLA and to integrate several multi-simulation federations to address specific problems of interest. In the first three years, we intend to develop and demonstrate two prototype federations: one to examine transportation options in response to chemical contaminant releases in cities; and a second to examine the detection and progress of disease outbreaks as the result of biological attacks. In developing the Urban Chemical Disaster (UCD) prototype federation, we plan to make use of models related to chemical dispersion developed and/or in use by PACER participants at UAB, as well as transportation modeling tools identified by PACER participants at FAU, in addition to other appropriate tools identified in the M&S tool search process described in 1, above. This federation will be completed in year 2 (approximately 16 months after the start of the overall project). In developing the Bioterrorism Crisis Management prototype federation, we anticipate making use of the simulation tools developed in the Modeling and Simulation of Complex Interactions of BT Epidemiology, Behavior and Economic Effects project (PACER Project C2, led by J. Epstein), in addition to other appropriate tools identified in the M&S tool search process described in 1, above. This federation will be completed in year 3 (approximately 28 months after the start of the overall project).

Dissemination:

The ultimate goal of this project is to offer complex decision support; the common simulation framework will be incorporated into a robust, efficient, and user-friendly environment. The project will make these tools available to policymakers, public health professionals, and other end-users. Specific training and educational needs will be identified. This potentially will include use of the tool to support a “WALEX-type” decision support exercise at JHU/APL.

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